All concepts

Cohort Analysis

Group users by when they joined, then follow each group forward — the only way to tell a product that is improving from one that is just growing.

Analytics SQL · Intermediate · ~6 min

In plain English

Follow the class of 2024 through school rather than averaging everyone in the building. Only then can you tell whether teaching improved or the intake changed.

Why it's worth your time

It's the only way to separate 'the product is getting better' from 'we acquired more users'.

If you remember three things

  • Denominator is always the cohort's original size
  • Down a column compares cohorts at the same age; across a row is one lifecycle
  • Incomplete cells are blank, not zero

Overview

A single overall metric hides everything interesting, because it mixes people who joined years ago with people who joined this week. A cohort analysis fixes the group at a starting event — usually signup month — and then measures that fixed group at 1, 2, 3 months of age. Reading down a column tells you whether newer cohorts behave better than older ones, which is the question 'is the product getting better'. Reading across a row tells you the lifecycle of a single group. The overall average tells you neither, and moves whenever the mix of new and old users moves.

In an interview

A cohort analysis groups users by their start period and tracks that fixed group over subsequent periods. Rows are cohorts, columns are age since joining. Reading across a row gives one cohort's lifecycle; reading down a column compares cohorts at the same age, which is how you tell product improvement from growth. An aggregate metric conflates the two.

Production defaults

Show sizes
cohort size in the first column — 2% of 40 users is noise
Cohort event
first value moment usually beats account creation
Pair it
a revenue-per-cohort version turns retention into payback

What breaks

  • Every retention rate is 100% — The denominator is the currently-active count. Use the age-0 count.
  • Retention 'collapsed' this month — The newest cohorts have incomplete windows counted as zero. Blank them.

Watch it explained

What is a Cohort? How to Read a Cohort Analysis Chart... — Peel, 5:31

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